Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have once again sent shockwaves through the global oil market, and Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is feeling the impact.

The recent US-Israeli operation that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, immediately pushed Brent crude toward $73 per barrel, its highest in six months. For Nigeria, this is a double-edged sword. 84 million barrels, higher crude prices could boost government revenue, strengthen foreign reserves, and support President Bola Tinubu’s reform agenda. Experts note, however, that rising global prices could quickly affect domestic consumers. In Nigeria’s post-subsidy era, petrol prices closely follow international crude. The situation is made more urgent by the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil passes. Past crises show that Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy always reacts to Middle East conflicts. While higher crude prices can provide vital fiscal space, the benefits come with immediate risks for everyday Nigerians.

The country now faces a delicate balance between capturing a potential windfall and managing the economic and social effects of rising energy costs.